Major League Baseball - 24th October 2024 - WORLD SERIES PREVIEW

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Oct 24, 2024

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2024 MLB Predictions and Season Forecasts

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June 5, 2024

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World Series Preview - Yankees v Dodgers

The 2024 World Series between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers presents a fascinating matchup between two powerhouse teams. To assess their chances, it's essential to examine both regular-season stats (for a base level of player ability) and more recent data (for current form). The balance of these factors will determine which team has the edge.

Regular Season Strengths - A statistical analysis

Over the regular season, the Dodgers displayed a deeper and more consistent lineup. With a Total Bases per 9 innings (TBO9) total of 49.99, they show that their lineup excels over time. Max Muncy (5.85 TBO9), Mookie Betts (5.92), and Shohei Ohtani (7.66) were standouts, consistently delivering strong offensive output. Players like Chris Taylor, Andy Pages, and Will Smith also contributed solidly, ensuring there were no major weak spots in their lineup. Freddie Freeman underperformed toward the end of the season but remained a key contributor throughout.

The Yankees, on the other hand, posted a TBO9 of 45.91, indicating a slightly lower base level of offensive strength compared to the Dodgers. Their top hitters like Juan Soto (7.22), Giancarlo Stanton (5.05), and Aaron Judge (8.29) were dominant, but beyond them, the lineup tapered off. Anthony Rizzo (3.74 TBO9) and Gleyber Torres (4.46) were steady but didn’t provide the depth seen in the Dodgers’ roster. The Yankees are more reliant on their top performers, which could be a concern in a long series.

Recent Form: Confidence and Momentum

In terms of recent form, which is vital to understanding who’s hot going into the series, the Dodgers again hold the advantage with a TBO9 of 63.66 over the last seven days. Muncy, Betts, and Ohtani have been in fantastic form, each posting impressive numbers. Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman have provided support, though Freddie Freeman continues to struggle, showing just 2.81 TBO9 recently, and might be ruled out with an ankle injury.

For the Yankees, their recent TBO9 total is 51.58, meaning their lineup isn’t performing at the same high level as the Dodgers. Stanton and Soto have maintained good form, each posting over 8.40 TBO9 in the last week. Judge has also been reliable, but the lower-order batters like Jose Trevino and Austin Wells haven't contributed as much, which could expose the Yankees to additional pressure if their stars fail to deliver.

Pitching Matchups

On the pitching side, both teams have solidified their rotations over the course of the regular season. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón, who remains their top pitcher with a TBO9 of 12.86. The rest of their rotation is shakier, with Clarke Schmidt struggling recently and an unreliable bullpen. Injuries to the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone leave their rotation thin, forcing them to lean heavily on Jack Flaherty and Yamamoto along with their bullpen. It is close, but the Yankees have 4 starters to the Dodgers’ 3, which might just tip the balance in their favour.

Conclusion

The Dodgers’ depth and balance throughout the season give them a slight edge over the Yankees, who rely more on their top hitters. With Glasnow and Stone injured, pitching could be an equalizer, but the Dodgers’ recent form and overall balance in their line-up make them favourites going into this highly anticipated World Series.